The past year has been a rollercoaster for crypto adoption and venture capital in Africa, marked by bear markets, hacks, layoffs, shutdowns, and burnout. If 2023 was a race, it felt like sprinting the 100 meters with Usain Bolt… over and over again.
2023 Recapped
To borrow a chaotic metaphor from Family Guy (Season 5, Episode 14): Peter throws a stone at hornets, imagines a thousand-year war between avians and insects, then finds out it's too expensive to animate.
That was 2023 in Web3 Africa: high drama, unrealized wars, and budget cuts.
Still, beneath the drama, real traction happened:
$117.1 billion in on-chain value transacted across Africa
$50 billion+ in stablecoin settlements: product-market fit secured
Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a disproportionately high share of monthly stablecoin usage
Nigeria’s Central Bank lifted its crypto ban, directing banks to issue local stablecoins. So yes, progress. But the pain isn't over.
2024: A Less Romantic Outlook
While some players are bullish about crypto adoption in Africa this year, I hold a more measured, less romantic outlook, grounded in two core layers:
Policy: Regulation Grows Teeth
Crypto across Africa is evolving from ambiguous regulation to structured regulatory frameworks. That shift is not free.
Operational costs will rise for startups
Governments are still not agile, lacking the technical literacy to keep pace
Bureaucracy remains the biggest innovation tax
Infrastructure: Still Weak
It’s been 10+ years since Luno (then BitX) launched in Africa. Yet the foundational infrastructure remains fragile and centralized, especially when compared to global peers. To paraphrase Buckminster Fuller:
"Don’t fight the system; build a new one that makes the old irrelevant."
We haven't done that yet. Not fully.
Five Outlooks for Web3 Africa in 2024
1. Speculation Will Dominate, Again
Stablecoins will grow from $50B to $80B+
But speculation, not payments, will still drive adoption
Expect a return of trading features in African crypto platforms
2. Web3 as a Megatrend: But Mostly B2B
Web3 will reshape Web2 financial services, but adoption will be slow on the consumer side
Why? The meta-cultural incentives of African finance: deep-rooted behavior won’t flip overnight
B2B apps will lead the charge, not flashy consumer wallets
3. Better Ramps, Faster Volumes
On/Off ramps will improve: faster, cheaper, smoother
Expect more automation and better fraud systems
But beware: Web2 banks are moving in fast, and they want to eat Web3’s lunch
4. Enforcement Will Spike
Get ready for crackdowns: influencers, firms, and even DAOs
The Wild West era is ending
Compliance will no longer be optional; it will be expected
5. The First TRON Flippening
While TRON still dominates stablecoin volume, UX pain points will shift developers to:
Solana/BSC
Celo/AVAX
Ethereum L2s
And they’re already moving. Because for real builders: A $0.1 transaction fee vs $0.0001 isn’t small: it’s the difference between survival and death.
Let's Keep Building (With Clear Eyes)
2024 will be another pivotal year.
Stablecoins will thrive
Adoption will grow, especially in B2B
But macro pain remains: from shaky currencies, War to institutional inertia
This is an institutional boom cycle.
It’s the grind cycle, where real infrastructure gets built. And that’s okay.
Let’s keep building.